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They'll want to keep their weight down to look and feel better and live longer, Spring expects.

By the turn of the century, one out of three adults will exercise regularly, up from one in four in 1992 and one out of five in 1987. In their mid-life phase, baby boomers will be more active than previous generations were, predicts Tom Doyle, head of research for the National Sporting Goods Association.

By the year 2000, those who fail to exercise "will be considered social pariahs on a par with those who don't brush their teeth," predicts Harvey Lauer, president of American Sports Data, Hartsdale, .

Baby boomers will still want to ski and play tennis--but with a twist. Such activities will have more of a social component and be less combative.

In deference to creaking joints, aging boomers will seek less strenuous activities, such as biking, hiking, backpacking and camping.

Family activities, such as camping, will grow as the importance of family time becomes paramount. Time-pressed parents will have to think about family activities, rather than the luxury of going off by themselves.

The recreational aspects of biking, as well as the fitness element, will become more important, witness the growth in sales of bicycles built for two.

Boomers will become bored with walking, which women dominate, and will seek an extra component, say, bird watching during hiking or backpacking jaunts. Given the interest in the environment, any activity, such as mountain biking, that combines fitness with the outdoors will be assured of a good future.

Exercise will continue its growth, either aerobic or with equipment at home or in commercial gyms. Younger people will be particularly interested in weight lifting in order to improve their appearance.

Licensed apparel will remain strong along with exercise. Boomers will want to identify with professional athletes and at least look like a jack.

Participants in team sports will still grow in absolute numbers. But they will have dipped as a percentage of the whole because of the "baby bust" that followed the boom.

Golf will continue to grow, since those age 45 and older comprise the most significant component of golfers.

Seeking Safer Thrills

Aging boomers also will be seeking "safe adventure" to indulge their fantasies, without danger or undue exertion, predicts Jo-Ann Robotti, vice president of Brain Reserve, the trend-tracking and marketing firm that was founded by Faith Popcorn.

A sporting goods store could operate a "virtual reality" room that lets a customer hike the Himalayas through the magic of computer simulation. Or it could operate a diving tank that lets swimmers explore a simulated Great Barrier Reef environment in safety.

"Fantasy adventures can make retailing fun again," Robotti said.

The watchword will be healthy rather than thin, Robotti predicts. Jeans makers have recognized expanding waistlines with looser jeans, like Lee's "relaxed fit."

The sporting goods store that caters to time-pressed consumers with personalized and customized service will be the winner, she said. By the year 2000, consumers could be shopping on interactive video for such staples and tennis balls and sweatsocks, saving their time for visits to sports boutiques, she predicts.

Nostalgia activities that carry aging boomers back to their childhood in the '50s and '60s will become increasingly popular. Interest in boxing as a fitness activity, for example, is up, even for women, Robotti said. In recognition that women are engaging in boxing moves and pummeling punching bags, if not each other, Everlast is making smaller shorts and gloves to fit women.

Megastores Dominate Markets

Megastores will dominate the category in primary and secondary markets of at least 500,000, although niche market opportunities will still abound in smaller markets and specialized categories.

"The Sportmarts of the world have defined what the immediate future of sporting goods retailing will be," said Allan Pennington, partner in the retail consulting firm of MacMillan/Doolittle, Chicago.

But they will be more fashion-oriented than now, predicts Tom Rauh, New York regional director for the retail consulting division of Ernst & Young. "The big play for retailers will be activewear," Rauh projects.

Athletic footwear, which enjoyed a tremendous boom in the '80s when consumers substituted sneakers for casual footwear, now is a mature market, and sports apparel could represent the next boom.

In merchandising, retailers will employ a total sports concept, with sporting goods equipment displayed along with the associated apparel and footwear, he predicts.

To make sure of custom fit, purchasers of skis and ski boots could try them out before buying in "virtual reality" rooms. Or buyers of other equipment could try them out on in-store practice facilities, such as the tennis courts that Oshman's has installed in its Supersports .A stores.

For regular exercise, sporting goods stores could be operating their own tennis clubs or gyms associated with their stores. Personal trainers would help them get the most out of the experience without hurting themselves.

To complete the health picture, sporting goods stores will diversify into nutrition, now an embryonic trend.

Although health food tickets are small, compared to sports equipment, "sporting goods retailers would be silly not to get into nutrition," said Spring of Leisure Trends.